How Much Crude Oil is in the USA Strategic Petroleum Reserve? How Long To Replenish?

 The USA Strategic Oil reserve is an imporatant safeguard to buffer the effects of any event that could cause problems to the general supply and price of the main products such as diesel or gasoline. So, how's it looking?

Well, apparently..."ok".  Well, we've been in better shape. Below is the latest chart I have as of September 2025 and my check of the guy's comment is below this chart.

We are well into September, but the chart includes only up to and including June.

But we can still study the data to assist us in our conclusion.

The steep drawdown was due to Biden's decision that many claim - and possibly rightly so - to try to keep oil prices down up to the runup of the election. As we know, it was an exercise in futility since he was taken off the ticket and swapped out for Harris. Regardless of where oil prices were or, would have been, would never have saved Harris. 

From the article on RigZone website:

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on August 27 and included data for the week ending August 22, there were 404.2 million barrels of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) on August 22.

That looks to line up with the chart. Then later, the article says:

On January 29, the Fitch Group sent Rigzone a BMI Q&A format research note. In that note, one of the questions BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, asked was ‘Will Trump Fill Strategic Petroleum Reserves ‘Right To The Top’?’.

Offering a response in the note, BMI analysts said, “oil storage levels will rise under Trump, but probably at a slower pace than his rhetoric would suggest”.

“There are logistical constraints to consider, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimating strategic reserves would take at least 19 months to replenish,” they added.

So, is he right?  That article was posted at the end of August, so his estimate/prediction is still pretty fresh. The best thing to do is to expand the chart and then extrapolate from there based on the present rate of refilling.  We'll also compare it to the fastest rate of filling.

So, at the present filling rate this puts us to 2035 which is for sure "at least 19 months" but that's at a grindingly slow-as-molasses filling rate. I could have gotten it closer to "the gnat's eye" by crunching the data, but being the lazy engineer that I am, eyeballing the slopes is far easier and faster. But we can see with our own eyes that rate of filling has varied all over the place over the decades.  

What I did was eyeball the slope of the curve from 2023-ish to the previous max and extroplated accordingly (that's the solid red line).  

Now we can look at the fastest filling rate by looking for the steepest part of the curve which was post 1980 (see red dotted oval on left).  If you take that line and extrapolate it out (the dot-dash green line), then we get just over 2.5 years - which is again for sure "at least 19 months".  So we can see the guy was "hedging his bets" not having any better way of phrasing it.

But what do you believe? Them? or your lyin' eyes? We have to ask the question: It may be probable, but is it even possible to reach the fastest filling rate we maintained back in ~1982? Have they replaced the equipment?  Is the equipment even their to potentially reach a meaningful filling rate to get it done relatively quickly? 

For sure, the pumps, piping and instrumentation,and other equipment to EMPTY the reserves are still in place. That's already been proven, thanks to Biden - or whoever it was that really gave the orders - who knows...

My Brush with the Vice-President

It was midnight. 

I think it was in June - perhaps July - maybe August- perhaps later.  I'm not really sure since it was maybe almost 10 years ago. I was sitting outside on the fenced-in porch of our apartment in Meridian, MS.  We were lucky that our apartment faced a woodsy area, so I had an ample amount of privacy as I sat.  The temperatures were very nice and comfortable - perhaps a little warmer than it would normally be.  I wasn't from around there so I didn't know what was normal and what was not. I was here in Mississippi on perhaps my 90th project, this time in a new gasification plant, assisting the plant personnel operating it.

It was about midnight.  I was relaxing there, sipping a nice gin and tonic, when some people, very quietly (it was very late, you know) moved into the empty apartment across from us in the same building.

And that was when the weird stuff started to happen.

A few days later, I had the distinct impresssion I was being watched. Could it have been my imagination?  Of course, it could have.  But...the feeling would not go away. Like I mentioned, there was nothing but a woodsy area our porch faced. 

I took my digital camera, scanning the area to see if any infrared spots would show up on the photos.  Apparently, many digital cameras are able to "see" in the infrared spectum.

Nothing.

But....I just couldn't shake it. 

My wife was out of town during this time - up visiting her folks in Ohio.  I even mentioned to her that I had this feeling of being watched, but never saw anything. It got so bad, I kept my pistol near at hand.

Several weeks or months past and nothing at all happened.  The feeling of being watched didn't completely go away.  Perhaps my "spidey senses" got numbed from the constant tingling. 

"Well, I know why you felt you were being watched," my wife declared one day. "I was out checking the mail and the apartment manager saw me told me that the new vice-president was coming soon."

Well, that...SORT of explained it.

She continued "You know who our new neighbors are?  It's Pence's son and his wife."

Well, that DID explain it. We found out the soon-to-be-vice-president's son had been attending the nearby Meridian Naval Air Station for training and was graduating.  So, mother and father were coming to help support and celebrate his graduation. They would also stay for Thanksgiving.

And then the security started showing up... 

...and they were NICE. One person would guard the son's apartment door.  Everytime I showed up he would profusely apologize for being in the way.  Being in the way? I never felt so safe in all my life!

Shortly after that, more black SUVs showed up as they surveyed the area. One day, several security persons were sort of hanging around our dumpster so I told my wife I had to go throw the trash out so I could meet them. We pretty much just shared cordial greetings.  I didn't get any cold looks. They probably already knew who I was and had my rapsheet (that was most likely blank unless it included the dozen or so speeding/parking tickets I had). 

The worst part of all this was they had the apartment management "fix" a light that had at one time illuminated the entire back part of our apartment. To my utter dismay, I no longer had the darkness to relax in while sitting outside on my porch.  Just that damn bright light. 

They had one of the guards knock down some old cobwebs and swept up the place - not that any of it was really needed - all the while apologizing for being in the way.

"They came and searched our apartment", my wife informed me.

"Really? Why?" I asked.

"They had a bomb-sniffing dog. The goverment guy was with the local police. I told them we had a pistol in the apartment. "

"Ooo.  How well did that go over?"

"The government guy looked at the police guy and the police guy said 'everyone in Meridian has a gun'.  The government guy shrugged and that was it."

Now....interestingly, I told this story to a lawyer who immediately told me we could have denied entry since they didn't have a warrant nor did they even have probable cause. Yeah, I guess we could have. 

Meeting Pence - (not me)

We then received some communication that a large portion of the parking lot around our building was going to be roped off and no parking was allowed in that area.  Later the "black SUVs" would show up and park there.

Then while I was at work, the presumptive vice president showed up to spend Thanksgiving with his son and wife. I got home and my wife had the news. She'd had a nice chat with the Senator/VP Pence and his wife.

"I was taking our dog out for a walk and ran into Pence and his wife." 

Whoa! She MET them.

She said they were very nice.  They admired Finn, our little mix-breed dog. Mrs. Pence urged my wife to intrude on their son to dog-sit Finn if we needed to go on vacation.  Now, I really liked that. We had planned a vacation to Las Vegas so, this would be perfect.  

They stayed for a few days.  Now the interesting thing was, all the while they were visiting, amongst the several black SUVs there was always one with the motor running continuously. I took this to mean it was always on-the-ready in case of a medical emergency and they had to race the VP to the hospital.

I don't recall how long the Pences stayed with their son.  One day after a long night of working at the gasification plant I fell asleep on the couch.  My wife roused me, "if you want to meet the vice-president you better wake up now . He's right behind you outside."

Sure enough he was there and getting set up with the local constabulary for photos. Right outside our porch. 

Well, I wasn't really very presentable, but the setup couldn't have been more apropos. So, I grabbed my phone and took a photo through the sliding glass door.  

The second part of the story.

Since we had finally booked our trip to Las Vegas, it was time to ask the Pence neighbors if they could watch our dog while we were away. Now, up to this time we had never met them no seen them. I wanted my wife to ask them. She wanted me to ask them. I wasn't even sure what to say. I finally figured we would live or die with whatever came out of my mouth.  Since our door was maybe 5 feet from theirs, it wasn't as if I had even 3 seconds to come up with something clever.

I knocked.  They came to the door.  We introduced ourselves.  I told them we were going on vacation soon and wondered if they would watch our dog, Finn, feed him and take him out for a walk or two each day.  To which they replied they would.  Whew! 

The third part of the story

Well, one good turn deserves another.  Some time later they asked us to watch and feed their cat. My wife handled that.  I told her she should have taken photos of herself in their apartment and posted them on Facebook - "Hey look, everybody! I'm in President Pence's sons apartment feeding their cat! Look at this place!"  

For some reason she didn't see the humor at all in my suggestion. 

The zereothpart of the story - the Homeland Security Agents

I should add just a litte more background to the story.  The apartment the young Pences lived in was previously lived in by two Homeland Security personnel.  They were extremely nice just like the security people later. 

Now, this area of Mississippi is very prone to tornadoes. And the siren went off on several occasions scaring the crap out of us.  One day, one of the Homeland Security guys visited us and said "In case things get bad with another tornado, there's a culvert on the other side of the lake.  It will hold maybe 60 people or more." I don't recall the exact number of people he said it could hold, but it was a lot.

Later, while walking our dog I went around the man-made pond to check on what he said.  And sure enough he was right.   

I was amazed.  And I couldn't help but wonder what made him decide to check on this.  What protocol do they have in place that would include providing for the safety of the local peoples from a local disaster? Perhaps this apartment was one of many in the area that were checked since he was the son of a sitting senator who might be VP? 

Who knows....

California Faces High Pump Prices as Phillips 66 Shuts LA Refinery

 ....getting back to why I started this blog.  I recall quite a while ago they gave a Chevron refinery such a hard time, Chevron threatened to shut it down. Apparently, that harassment hasn't stopped. 

Phillips 66 will begin shutting down its 139,000 bpd Los Angeles-area refinery as soon as next week, sources told Reuters, moving forward on a closure plan announced last year. Units at the plant will idle in phases through Q4 2025, with the facility permanently offline by year-end.

The decision isn’t a surprise—Phillips 66 said in October it would exit the site, citing “market dynamics.” But it comes with fallout: about 600 employees and 300 contractors will lose their jobs by December, with only a handful reassigned to the company’s marine terminal. The company insists it will support workers through the transition, though local officials remain worried about the economic hit.

California, meanwhile, is staring at a bigger problem. Between Phillips 66’s LA facility and Valero’s Benicia refinery, scheduled to close in 2026, the state is set to lose roughly 17% of its refining capacity. That’s a dangerous haircut in a state already paying the nation’s highest pump prices. Analysts warn that by late 2026, California gasoline could top $8 a gallon if supply disruptions collide with fewer in-state refineries.

Lawmakers appear caught flat-footed. California has prided itself on leading the clean energy charge, but the state has no system-wide transition plan to manage a shrinking refinery fleet. Imports will plug some of the gap, but relying on tankers means higher costs and more emissions at the ports. For now, policymakers are scrambling to balance climate ambition with the political pain of $6-plus fuel.

Flat-footed? Really?  CA is run by complete idiots. Brain-dead.  As in... no pulse.

is the US Dollar...CRASHING??

 The short answer is:  NO.  

The real answer is: It's slowly losing value.  Rather than bore you with a lot of mumbo jumbo we'll look at the DXY chart.  This chart is a basket of currencies based on per centages of the:

- British Pound

- The Euro

- Japanese Yen

- Canadian Dollar

- Swedish Crona

- Swiss Franc

Now, when the Euro became the currency for most of Europe, this list had to be revised to what it is today. 

So we'll look at a monthly chart of the DXY as of today (click on the chart to get a clearer picture of it):

You'll notice that the trends that show the USD getting stronger take longer to peak.  And the declining trends  happen faster.  The two major moves down both took about 2300 to 2400 days. The moves from the bottom took 3600 to 4800 days to finally bottom. There's not a lot of data, but there is enough data for us to draw some conclusions (reasonable or not):

- The USD has hit a major top and the next major decline possibly has begun

-  If the trend holds -it may or may not hold- the USD will bottom at around 62 

-  The bottom will occur somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 1/2 years. This would put the bottom in the range of sometime in late 2028 to early 2029. 

As you can see from earlier movements, this was neither a steady decline nor a steady incline. Also, the time I suggest could be much longer or much shorter.

But what this does mean, USA contractors and engineers will be in higher demand by foreign companies for services.  I mentioned in another post that I was getting paid in British Pounds and each month when the Pounds hit my American Bank I essentially got a "raise" once converted.

Also, US goods such as automobiles will be far cheaper.  US companies who do business overseas will see their profits soar. 

But if you want to visit Japan or Europe, you'd better do it now. 

Madam Butterfly - my first brush with AI

 Back in 1975 (or so), I took an alternate English class. It was a creative writing class. I decided to do this since the 1st semester English class just about did me in - as they are supposed to do back then - make your 1st year a living hell to jar you awake that you really weren't in Kansas anymore.

I had to get prior permission from the professor. So I met with the professor and we got to know eachother.  I always felt I had a knack for the soft side and I guess the professor thought so, too. He approved my request and I was in.

The course was fun and the professor was actually very good.  The good news was if you had a split infinitive in a sentence you weren't automatically given an "F" on your paper.

There was really no bad news.  The professor would read some of the poems outloud and give his opinion.

I don't recall, but it was probably near the end of the semester (or maybe not - this was a long time ago) the professor assigned us all to write a short story.

My story was so good, the professor read it aloud to the class.  When I got it back, the professor wrote a comment on it saying "your story was more poetic than your poetry".  I had gotten an "A". Or maybe it was a B+.  I am pretty sure back then, only super-geniuses were graced with the top grade.

Unfortunately, that paper is lost to the wind. But I will retell it the best I can recall.  You see, back in 1975 or 1976 I wrote a short story about Artificial Intelligence. 

Now, the phrase was not used in the story. It was called simply "The Computer".  Mainly, my background by this time was two years as a computer operator. The two places I worked had what we would call a mini-computer. Here is a photo of the computer I operated - the accounting firm Clarkson, Harden and Gantt had two of these.   They were called the Honeywell H200 series.  There was no hard drive on these. They each had a "massive" 16K of memory, four tape drives, card reader and and a very zippy printer - we even had a paper tape reader (straight ahead to the right of the four tape readers). Below is an actual photo of the computers I operated.

I suppose when it first came out it was considered State Of The Art. But by the time I got to them, they were pretty much on their last leg.  I had already been a computer operator at another company whose computer had a "massive" 64k bytes of memory.

Here is a great YT video of the Honeywell H200 (formerly General Electric but purchased by Honeywell) back when "blinking lights" were considered the ultimate meaning of what a computer looked like - click on the photo:

The Billion Dollar Brain - Honeywell H200 Computer

The story: 

Jim was a computer operator at a small firm. He was aware of the fact that they had some new operating system installed on their computer. But he was getting frustrated.  He would give verbal commands and she would not respond. Exasperated, he went to the Chief Operations office and vented a little.

The CO understood and gently reminded Jim they had a new operating system installed that they had to "teach" or "train".

To assist the computer to learn, they would have a radio playing after hours.  The computer would listen to it and later ask Jim what this or that was about.  As time went on, the computer seemed to understand that Jim appeared to have a general understanding of what she was was hearing.

Regarding the computer's responses, they were all via teletype. In essence, the computer could only print out its queries and responses.

Jim's wife didn't help. She was a brow-beater and kept insisting he quit and get a higher paying job.

One day, the computer asked about some music she listened to. Jim explained that what she was listening to was an "opera".  And this opera was called "Madam Butterfly". 

The computer asked him to explain the plot.  Jim gave a short summary.  A young Japanese woman whose nickname was "Madam Butterfly" fell in love and married an American Naval Captain.  He had to go back to America and vowed to return. Waiting in vain, and when  all looked hopeless, she killed herself.  The US Naval Captain does return only to find her dead. 

Of course, there's more to this story, but these were the "cliff notes" and Jim didn't want to get into the "Soap Opera" of it all.

Then out of the blue, the computer says to Jim "I love you".  But Jim doesn't even respond. 

Several days later, Jim finally did find a new job and his wife was overjoyed. The next day he went to work and submits his resignation effective immediately. Of course, his boss was not happy.

Jim goes into the computer and tells her goodbye. But now there is silence. Nothing. This sort of miffed Jim.

 Jim gets in his car and drives home but with the computer's silence he was trying to work through his frustration. Then he recalled the computer asking about the opera Madam Butterfly.  Then Jim's imagination took off. Would - or even more central - COULD a computer kill itself? Jim didn't know what to do. Well, he did a quick U-turn squealing tires and took off back to the office to make sure the computer wouldn't do herself in.

The scene cuts to a gravesite funeral. Jim's wife is dressed in black.  Someone explains that Jim died in a car accident. He had lost control of his car and was killed.  A couple of former fellow employees were talking about poor Jim and how he was such a great guy. 

And then one of them says: "Well, the eulogy was quite nice. I'll miss Jim"

Then the other says: "Hey, ya know the computer wrote that eulogy."

The other replied: "Ya don't say?"

The end.

The basic moral of the story was that computers are souless machines.  They are incapable of true emotion. But real humans, as portayed in the opera Madam Butterfly - which is starkly to the complete opposite of any computer - will in many instances experience such extreme emotion that to them at the time is more than they could ever bear or endure.  The emotional pain is so extreme that to them, the only solution to stop it is to kill one's self. Would the person be justified in such a measure? That is beside the point.  When they peer as far as they can, they see...nothing but pain and grief. There is nothing beyond that.

I worked as a clerk in an emergency room for a couple of years. If you want to see real life, I highly recommend you work in an ER. The level of anguish you will see will curl your hair and pierce your soul.  No computer will ever ever ever be able to know what that is truly like. 

There is no soul there to pierce.

The "Winner's Curse" and What Comes Next. Be prepared For 2026-27

The CATO Institute has put together a pretty good description of how long they see things going and how it has panned out over the decades: 

 In 2002, 74% of the articles on monetary policy published by U.S. economists in U.S.-edited journals appeared in journals published by the Fed, or were authored (or co-authored) by Fed staff economists. The Fed’s capacity to write and re-write history dominates the information flow. It’s no wonder the Fed’s canards give it few worries. Speaking of economic history, one thing that the purveyors of monetary policy (and all prudent investors) should become well versed in is a piece of business-cycle history that has apparently passed them by – namely the little-known, but essential, 18-year real estate cycle.

 Sorry.  The last partial sentence in bold was about the only thing I found interesting.

Interestingly there is a somewhat regular cycle  in real estate that can last on average 18- 18.5 years. The CATO article does have a nice table that shows this (red arrows are mine).

The 1st two columns are peaks in land value.  The 2nd 2 columns are peaks in the construction cycle.  And the 3rd 2 columns are in regards to the business cycle.  They may not all be identical all the time, but they do rhyme.

A typical 18 (or so) year Real Estate Cycle looks something like this:

The very top of the cycle catches people who are in a hurry to buy before house prices get too high.  When the deal is closed, the new owners are happy...but only for a while. At this point, they are regretting the purchase and start to notice their friends are being laid off. Not many, mind you, but enough to have them start wondering if perhaps he bought too late.  What happens if he gets laid off too?  What is he going to do?

As it gets closer to the cycle peak, the nervous owners sees there aren't a lot of similar sized/styled houses on the market at what they paid. But what do they do? Hold on hoping prices will rise?  Pray interest rates will fall?  

Yes, they are in the "Winner's Curse". 

And this is when those who find themselves unemployed walk away from their houses they can no longer afford. Others who got laid off, but having bought a house earlier but at a lower price are able to hold longer. 

Most of the time, this Real Estate Cycle synchronizes with the Business Cycle. You end up with a race to the bottom as one cycle feeds into the next one.

And we will see this play out again in 2026 or 2027. And it will be far worse than we could ever imagine.

Update on Pew's Analysis of Each State's Rainy Day Fund

This is a subject near and dear to my heart.  WHAT IF....all revenue stopped coming into the state treasuries of every state....how much would the state have to have on hand to continue to operate? What all this includes I am not sure.  But for sure it would include things such as normal administrative work, police and fire workers, utilities such as water and sewage treatment. But these are just guesses. 

It is a question that is much worth considering; each state has what they call a Rainy Day Fund.  There are "Best Practices" regarding how much cash they should have on hand for that just-in-case moment. I would think you'd want one or possibly two months at a minimum. But...that's just a guess. 

The Poster Child for RDFs has been Illinois. At one point they only had enough to fund ninety minutes of government operations. Now they are up to a "whopping" 14.4 days. Pathetic.

The best - and has mantained this status - was Wyoming, again taking the trophy.  But they have been better. Back in 2016 they had over 404 days in the fund.

Unfortunately, a lot of states use it as a slush fund. Need a few extra million to cover a shortfall? Get it from the RDF.  If these types of excuses are used, you end up like Illinois.  However, I think there are some states that have maintained their RDF through lawful restrictions and narrowing how they can be abused.  Consider what North Carolina went through when Hurricane Helene bulldozed through and wiped out major roadways and infrastructure - a true "rainy day" at the very least.

But overall, the median length of time has VASTLY improved.  The median time in 2016 was only 16 days.  Now it's just over 49 days.

For sure, there will be a day coming when they will be hitting their RDF quite frequently to maintain falling budgets....it will be a horrible sight.  

Here's the link to Pew's analysis on the RDFs  : https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/03/27/state-rainy-day-fund-growth-slowed-in-fiscal-2024?rsrv_map_data_picker=rdfd

BTW, I had to add the days to the map.  Hopefully, the numbers are correct.