Monday, December 26, 2016

REALIST NEWS - Why I think Bitcoin will do WAY better than any paper stock

I think Cryptocurrencies are the future.  Screw the banks.

What Debt In Chicken Farming Says About American Agriculture

I feel there is a Day of Reckoning in farming in the USA.  Over burdened with regulations and rising interest rates causing land values to plummet.  This reeks of a disaster that will once again decimate our farming community.

I look for mass starvation in the USA if this continues.
Poultry farmers are over-leveraged on average compared to other farmers. In 2007, poultry farmers had the highest DRCU of any sector in agriculture, at nearly 70%. This means that poultry farmers are have already leveraged nearly 70% of their capacity to pay back debt, just to keep the business running. This calculation does not include their livelihood: feeding their family, paying for their own home, etc. Close followers in high DRCU were hog and dairy farmers, industries that are increasingly adopting contract models similar to poultry. In the same year, according to research by USDA’s Economic Research Service, the poultry sector also had a larger than proportional amount of insolvent farms, compared to other sectors.

So all those bright and shiny new chicken coups and farms brought on by new idiotic regulations created by people who know shit about farming and paid with borrowed money will CRUSH the American poultry farmer.

Farmers Push Back Against Animal Welfare Laws

So, the 98% of America that doesn't farm with the vast majority probably never ever even seen a farm or maybe even planted a seed, are going to tell the highly skilled farmers how to raise live stock?  Really?

This spells the end of agriculture in America.  Socialism at its finest!!
North Dakota and Missouri adopted amendments in the last few years that enshrined into their constitutions the right of farmers and ranchers to use current practices and technology. Legislatures in many states, including Indiana, Mississippi, Nebraska and West Virginia, considered proposed amendments this year. And Oklahoma voters this month rejected a similar amendment sent to them by the Legislature.

Farmers acknowledge that some people who do not spend much time on farms may object to some of their practices. But they say that they do not abuse animals and that their practices are the most efficient and safest way to keep up with demand for food. And, they say, complying with restrictions on raising poultry and livestock like those approved in Massachusetts are costly for them and for consumers.

They point to an 18 percent increase in the price of eggs — about 49 cents a dozen — in California last year that was attributed to a law that created strict space requirements for hens. The law applies not just to producers in the state but to producers in other states that sell eggs there.

“Our nation’s ability to protect its food supply can be threatened by unnecessary regulations driven by activist agendas, often by people who’ve never set foot on farmland or have no idea what it takes to produce a crop,” said Paul Schlegel, director of environment and energy policy for the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Multi-Million Dollar Producing Vinyl Company Leaves SoCal for Prescott

What amazing hemmoraging!
Halle said choosing Prescott was not completely straightforward, but leaving California became a no-brainer for this Orange County native/resident and his wife/CFO, Helen, a former bank vice president. “We had to get out of California,” Halle said. “They taxed us to death. We tried to stay creative but all costs saved went back out the door as laws changed. This meant we couldn’t innovate enough to keep competing with China. Helen said we really have to love California to stay here because if we want to keep innovating, we’ve got to leave.” Halle takes his criticism of California’s business environment a step further, believing that distribution is favored over manufacturing because it produces more tax revenue. “There’s more smog because of this,” he added. “Now I have a fantastic and clear view out my window.”

Boeing to shift 2,400 jobs away from Huntington Beach facility by 2020

Good God!  Is there no hope for CA?

But he also noted that the industry has been shrinking in Southern California for decades. “This is another brick in that path,” he added. In the first nine months of this year, profit in the company’s defense and space unit was down 5 percent from a year earlier.

Moreover, as Congress has curbed defense spending in recent years, Boeing has lost several big military contracts. The company also faces competition from space startups such as Hawthorne-based SpaceX.

Statewide, Boeing’s workforce has shrunk by nearly 700 jobs since January, dropping to 14,414. Even so, “California remains key to Boeing’s future,” said spokeswoman Tiffany Pitts.

“It’s home to the world’s largest satellite factory, commercial airplane engineering activities, and military and commercial airplane product support.”

Major defense contractor Lockheed Martin plans to leave San Diego

When is CA going to wake up?

A major defense contractor is moving out of state and taking 100 good paying jobs with it.

This time, it's Lockheed Martin, saying goodbye to California and its high taxes.

The defense contractor is moving command and control jobs to its headquarters in Littleton, Colo., a state that cuts California's corporate income tax in half.

"We continually evaluate our operations to identify opportunities to increase affordability," the company said in a statement. "...Reduction of duplicate laboratories and facilities operating costs improves the affordability and efficiency of our business, which better serves our customers."

Lockheed Martin opened the office in 2009 with 500 workers.

Transamerica to close L.A. and Folsom offices, cutting hundreds of jobs

No longer a physical presence in CA.
Financial services and insurance company Transamerica said Thursday that it will close its office in Los Angeles, cutting about 315 jobs.

The Baltimore company will also close its office in Folsom, where 30 employees will be affected. Transamerica will no longer have operations in California, though the company still owns the Transamerica Pyramid in San Francisco and will continue to serve customers in California.

Transamerica said it will also close its office in West Chester, Ohio. All the office closures will occur next year.

Nationwide, Transamerica will eliminate about 800 positions, including job cuts in other locations.

Another 1,000 Jobs LEAVING California—For Low Tax/No Tax States

There really is only so much a company can bear.
Verizon is offering 1,000 employees four choices, move to Texas, South Carolina of Florida—or be unemployed. Texas and Florida have in income taxes—and low cost housing—compared to California. My hope I that these folks get out of California while they can—failed schools, high crimes rates, worst roads in the nation, a governor that gives water to fish not people. We are on the cusp according to Guv Brown of a recession—time to get out of Dodge, or Sacramento.

“Verizon Wireless is closing its Rancho Cordova operation, cutting 1,000 jobs.

“This was a very difficult but necessary business decision. We value our customer service and telesales employees. They are highly trained, highly skilled and experienced and they will be encouraged to stay with the company,” said spokeswoman Heidi Flato, via email.

Uber's self-driving cars quit California and leave for Arizona on the back of a self-driving truck

Ho boy.  Your Silicon Valley guys are leaving?

In a final blow to Uber's self-driving car ambitions in the state, the California DMV revoked the registration of Uber's 16 autonomous vehicles on Wednesday, forcing the company to shut down its self-driving pilot program in San Francisco.

"It was determined that the registrations were improperly issued for these vehicles because they were not properly marked as test vehicles," the DMV wrote in a letter to Uber on Wednesday.

APEX Moving From California to… Arizona!

Another one sees the light!
"Getting out from under the restrictive and frankly punitive regulatory environment of California allows us to expand our R&D efforts as we continue to bring new products to market,” explained Folk. “The move is not only good for Apex but also our employees.”

California is consistently ranked as one of the worst states in which to run a business. By relocating to Arizona, Apex Tactical Specialties is not only able to reduce many operating costs for the business, but also expand opportunities for employees. In Peoria, Arizona the consumer prices are 18.03% lower than in San Luis Obispo, California. Rent prices are 40.20% lower and local purchasing power is 76.24% higher."

Why a lot of people are moving out of California

Yes, life is BETTER somewhere else.

Karen Francis and her husband left the San Francisco Bay area in January after he was offered a job in Vancouver, Washington. While their move was career motivated, it's been good for their budget.

They now own a 2,600-square-foot home that is almost double the size of the place they were renting in California.

And it's not just their housing costs that have shrunk. The couple, which have an infant daughter, are also paying less in gas, utilities and services like garbage collection. And commute times are significantly better.

"You have to drive 20 minutes to get anywhere in Silicon Valley," the 28-year-old said. "Here, the drive to the store, church, gym where I workout, everything is 10 minutes or less."

MEXICO II Is California splitting away? Group believes California should form its own nation

Boy, did they pick the wrong time to decide to split away.  Poverty reaching critical flash point.  Public debt at an all time high. Awash in illegal immigrants (who CA will most likely gleefully announce  as all legal...until the vicious cycle begins again).  A state stripped of manufacturing.  You name it.

This month, the group announced the opening of a “cultural center” in Moscow — “the first of many planned California culture centers which will serve to build a bridge between the nation of California and the nations of the world,” read a statement on Yes California’s website.

If its ballot measure succeeds, Yes California would pursue a 2019 vote to declare the state’s independence. At least half of the state’s voters would have to cast ballots and 55 percent would have to choose independence for California to become its own nation, according to document Yes California filed with the Attorney General’s office.
The good news is the state would immediately default on all of its pension obligations, leaving the "citizens" of CA walking around in a cloudy LA haze wondering what the heck happened.

Sunday, December 25, 2016

California man fights DUI charge for driving under influence of caffeine

And THIS is the state that will launch "their own damn satellite".  What complete nonsense.  They are too busy trying to find EVERYONE guilty of something.
“It’s really stupid,” said Jeffrey Zehnder, a forensic toxicologist who frequently testifies in court cases. Over 41 years, Zehnder said, he had never seen a prosecution for driving under the influence of caffeine.

“If that’s the case, then they better come and arrest me,” he joked.

Zehnder was informed about the case by Barrett, but has not been contracted to testify on either side.

California vehicle code defines a “drug” as any substance besides alcohol that could affect a person in a manner that would “impair, to an appreciable degree” his ability to drive normally.

Making that case with caffeine would be difficult, Zehnder said, because the prosecutor would have to show that impaired driving was specifically caused by the caffeine and not any other circumstances.

“There are no studies that demonstrate that driving is impaired by caffeine, and they don’t do the studies, because no one cares about caffeine,” he said.

As for Schwab, he just wants this ordeal to be over. In a statement provided to the Guardian by his attorney, he said his reputation had been damaged.

“No one believed me that I only had caffeine in my system until I showed them the lab results,” he said. “I want the charges to be dismissed and my name to be cleared.”
 “If that’s the case, then they better come and arrest me,” he joked.

Yes.....this is CA.  They will.  They really will.

REMINDER: Kwanzaa Was Concocted By A Deranged Felon Who Brutally Tortured Two Naked Women

I had almost forgotten that I try to remind people about this.  The whole idea of Kwanza is ridiculously stupid.  People are bamboozled into believing that it's a quaint custom straight out of Africa.  Not so.  It's an idea right our of the minds of a Leftist criminal.
The creator of Kwanzaa is Maulana Ndabezitha Karenga, a 75-year-old professor or Africana studies at California State University, Long Beach. His real name is Ronald Everett. He was born in rural Maryland, the fourteenth child of a sharecropping Baptist minister.

Karenga was convicted in 1971 for brutally torturing two naked women. The women were members of Karenga’s ultra-radical, paramilitary, black nationalist cult called the US Organization, according to a May 1971 Los Angeles Times story dug up by FrontPage Magazine.

“Deborah Jones, who once was given the Swahili title of an African queen, said she and Gail Davis were whipped with an electrical cord and beaten with a karate baton after being ordered to remove their clothes,” the LA Times article reports.

Jones “testified that a hot soldering iron was placed in Miss Davis’ mouth and placed against Miss Davis’ face and that one of her own big toes was tightened in a vise. Karenga, head of US, also put detergent and running hoses in their mouths, she said.”

Karenga tortured Jones and Davis with the help of three fellow US Organization members because Karenga believed that the torture victims were using magic crystals to poison him on behalf of his enemies.
And he's rewarded by given a professorship in....CA.  Why does that not surprise me?

Saturday, December 24, 2016

OPEC Threatened by Tiny Oklahoma Town With Soaring Supplies

We are swimming oil.  So much oil!

For OPEC, there are few enemies more fearsome than the tiny Oklahoma town of Cushing.

With oil inventories at Cushing creeping near an all-time high, U.S. benchmark futures prices are struggling to advance despite the promised production cuts agreed to by OPEC, Russia and other producers. And the storage tanks are likely to stay full as refiners park crude in Oklahoma to lower their tax bills.

Cushing, which prides itself as the “pipeline crossroads of the world,” is the delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate crude contract. With tanks that can hold 77 million barrels of crude, enough to supply France for two months, it’s the biggest storage hub in the U.S. The last high point there came in May. Now, after a brief hiatus, the tanks are filling up once again. For the OPEC-led efforts to boost prices, that’s a major problem.

Climate change expert sentenced to 32 months for fraud, says lying was a 'rush'

So, do you think we can believe one work he has to say about global warming?

When he first began looking into Beale’s deceptions last February, said EPA Assistant Inspector General Patrick Sullivan, who spearheaded the Beale probe, “I thought, ‘Oh my God, How could this possibly have happened in this agency? … I’ve worked for the government for 35 years. I’ve never seen a situation like this.”

Monday, December 19, 2016

California governor: 'If Trump turns off the satellites, California will launch its own damn satellite'

Oh Yeah?  You and what industry?  They all left!! You'll have to outsource most of the manufacturing to the "USA."

California Gov. Jerry Brown gave a fiery speech on climate-change policy on Wednesday, during which he said, "If Trump turns off the satellites, California will launch its own damn satellite," according to The Los Angeles Times.

Saturday, December 17, 2016

OPEC Threatened by Tiny Oklahoma Town With Soaring Supplies

And supplies keep growing and growing...

Stockpiles rose by 1.22 million barrels last week, following a 3.78 million jump the previous week that was the biggest since 2008. The inflows have pushed up stocks to 66.5 million barrels, within a whisker of the all-time record of 68.3 million set in May. With the promise of production cuts sending forward prices up, that’s encouraging traders and refiners to hold onto inventories, the last thing the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries wants to see.

"The near-term prognosis for Cushing balances is not particularly rosy," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultants Energy Aspects Ltd.

What’s happening to Canadian churches?

"Let no one deceive you by any means; for that Day will not come unless the falling away comes first..."

The Great Canadian Apostasy in full swing.
In 2003, in the province of Quebec, some 2,751 places of worship were identified by Quebec’s Religious Heritage Council. Since then 400 have closed. Quoted by Post Media, Council project manager Denis Boucher says the rhythm of closures is increasing, “A church closes every week. It is a huge phenomenon”.

While Christian churches are being closed in Canada due mainly to diminishing congregations, the influs of newcomers means many other religious communities are growing in Canada.

While many churches have been torn down to make way for other uses, such as condos, in some cases, when a Christian church is put up for sale, it will be saved and converted to another religion.

As one Windsor resident said regarding St George’s, “Once a building is gone, you can’t get it back”
I supposed that "influx of newcomers" is referring to Muslims.

A graph showing the emptying of the Canadian Soul:

Friday, December 16, 2016

California Regression - Eco Craziness

Great radio discussion on youtube:

Tyranny, one tiny step at a time - How ideology, group identity & collective guilt destroy societies

Great youtube video on modern day Communism/Socialism

Falling incomes turn California into modern-day Dust Bowl: Susan Shelley

All those who have the means are the first to leave.  What are left are the wealthy who can afford to endure anything and the poor who have no choice but to endure everything.
Nearly 60 percent of California voters with children living at home agree with the statement, “my children will have a better future if they leave California.” More than 75 percent now think “earning enough income to enjoy a middle-class lifestyle is becoming almost impossible in my part of California.” In Los Angeles County, it’s 87 percent.

That’s from a new survey by the California Chamber of Commerce. And if you think those numbers are discouraging, the numbers in a just-released report from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation are even worse.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Time Warner CEO Jeffrey Bewkes Says Democrats Were Bigger First Amendment Threat Than Trump

This is the meme: blast conservatives and Republicans as being censors trying to stifle free speech when the reality the Left are the real culprits.  The whole "fake news" meme points straight to the heart of the Left and how they never once budged on Hellery losing the election.

The Left is the threat to free speech.  Not the Right.
"The threat to the First Amendment came from the Democratic side," Bewkes said during a conversation with Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget at a conference in New York in a session that was webcast.

Bewkes made the comment after Blodget noted that Trump had criticized CNN for allegedly unfair coverage, and even threatened some sort of regulation in retaliation against CNN, owned by Time Warner.

"I don't think that's a serious thing," Bewkes told Blodget at the Ignition: Future of Digital conference. "If anybody is going to change the First Amendment — remember, the Democratic party had a campaign plank to change the First Amendment, and they were doing it in the guise of campaign finance reform."

The CEO, continuing his theme, even acknowledged that the news media does, indeed, lean left, as conservatives have long complained.

"That was worrying me more, because the press tends to miss that because they tend to lean that way, and therefore they were supporting what they were viewing, I think overly charitably, as something in cleaning up money in politics when in fact what it would do is restrain multiple voices," Bewkes argued. "So, I thought the threat to the First Amendment came from the Democratic side more. I think there won't be a serious effort on the Republican side."

Monday, December 5, 2016

US Already Ready to Take Advantage of OPEC Cut

Surely.  SURELY the Saudis knew this would happen, right?  RIGHT???

"We should also be cautious to read too much into the timing of these latest additions to the national rig count, as companies have not yet had time to respond to the sharp uptick in prices we saw on Wednesday as a result of OPEC’s (and Russia’s) decision to cut production. But while we can’t say that this is a direct effect of those cuts, we can reasonably expect the American shale industry to quickly respond to $50+ per barrel crude. Firms have been actively developing new processes and technologies that will allow them to become profitable at these levels in more plays than ever before, and thanks to the relatively small scale of shale well drilling, they’ll be able to adjust to a more bullish market with much more agility than more conventional oil producers."

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Stumbling onto the side of insanity: U.S. Workplace English Rules Discriminatory, Foreign Language Demands Aren’t

It is hard to fathom the utter gross stupidity of a person who says this.  What kind of twisted, drug stupored mess up shit is this?  What a perversion!
Two years ago, the administration laid the foundation for the new measures by suing a private American business for discriminating against Hispanic and Asian employees because they didn’t speak English on the job. The case involved a Green Bay Wisconsin metal and plastic manufacturer that fired a group of Hmong and Hispanic workers over their English skills. Forcing employees to speak English in the U.S. violates Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the EEOC claimed in its lawsuit. That’s because the Civil Rights Act protects employees from discrimination based on national origin, which includes the linguistic characteristics of a national origin group. Therefore, the EEOC argued, foreigners have the right to speak their native language even during work hours at an American company that requires English.

Now the agency has created official federal rules to support this absurd theory as well as other innovative discrimination categories, including “multiple protected bases.” This is a seldom recognized but potent Molotov cocktail of prejudice based on race, color and religion. As an example, the new rules mention discrimination against Middle Easterners perceived to “follow particular religious practices.” Among the amusing hypotheticals embedded in the rules is an Egyptian named Thomas who alleges he was harassed by his coworkers about his Arab ethnicity and Islam. “Thomas’ charge should assert national origin, race and religious discrimination,” the EEOC writes, referring to its new “multiple protected bases” category. The agency reassures that it will protect Middle Easterners, stating that “Title VII prohibits employment discrimination based on the perception that someone is from the Middle East or is of Arab ethnicity, regardless of how she identifies herself or whether she is, in fact, from one or more Middle Eastern countries or ethnically Arab.”
I will now...vomit.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

California regulates cow farts: Jumping the shark on Stupid

Yet another example of the stupidity and Leftist insanity coming out of CA.  And the vast majority of CA'ians even in the depth of increasing poverty double down and vote more Dems and Leftists into office.  The complete and total collapse of CA will be the whamming sound herd all over the world.

But by that time it will all be too late.

And what do you think the over-controlled farmers will do?  Will they stay?  I doubt it.  What evil and stupid people rule over CA.

And when the crash occurs, you will see the population of CA be cut in HALF as the inhabitants will flee when they see there is nothing left of their "paradise".
The nation's leading agricultural state is now targeting greenhouse gases produced by dairy cows and other livestock.

Despite strong opposition from farmers, Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation in September that for the first time regulates heat-trapping gases from livestock operations and landfills.

Cattle and other farm animals are major sources of methane, a greenhouse gas many times more potent than carbon dioxide as a heat-trapping gas. Methane is released when they belch, pass gas and make manure.

"If we can reduce emissions of methane, we can really help to slow global warming," said Ryan McCarthy, a science adviser for the California Air Resources Board, which is drawing up rules to implement the new law.

Livestock are responsible for 14.5 percent of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, with beef and dairy production accounting for the bulk of it, according to a 2013 United Nations report.
What they fail to understand is that there are hectares and hectares and hectares and thousnds of more hectares  of vegetation that falls to the ground, decay and release methane gas.  The Leftists have no control over that.  None whatsoever.  They can't

There are hundreds of thousands of wild animals and birds who defecate, filling the forests and fields with waste that then decay to form methane.  Can anyone control them?  No.

The waterways and rivers, streams, ponds, lakes are filled with fish and even more vegetation that decay, releasing even more methane into the atmosphere.  Can the CA Leftists control them?  No.

What a stupid idiotic peoples we have become.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

Fidel Castro: My Generation's Disgrace Finally Died

The truth of Communism is laid out for all to see.

I should have been impressed. And maybe I was in a way, but not for long, because the truth was there in front of me—the reality of Cuba itself. It was—you could find no other words—a communist shithole.

After a week, I was desperate to get out, as were the mostly leftist filmmakers who were with me, one of them even a member of the sainted "Hollywood Ten." The problem was, getting out wasn't so easy. We were stuck for ten hours at Havana Airport waiting for our semi-illegal charter flight from Miami to be allowed to land. I don't have to tell you that I and the rest of the group were sweating—and not just from the humid weather. Suppose we had to spend the rest of our lives in the "Marxist paradise"?

The Real War on Science

Leftists are so anti-science as to be pathetic.  How the hell they managed to control our colleges is a mystery to me.
Environmental science has become so politicized that its myths endure even after they’ve been disproved. Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring set off decades of chemophobia with its scary anecdotes and bad science, like her baseless claim that DDT was causing cancer in humans and her vision of a mass avian die-off (the bird population was actually increasing as she wrote). Yet Silent Spring is taught in high school and college courses as a model of science writing, with no mention of the increased death tolls from malaria in countries that restricted DDT, or of other problems—like the spread of dengue and the Zika virus—exacerbated by needless fears of insecticides. Similarly, the Left’s zeal to find new reasons to regulate has led to pseudoscientific scaremongering about “Frankenfoods,” transfats, BPA in plastic, mobile phones, electronic cigarettes, power lines, fracking, and nuclear energy.

The long-term risks are certainly worth studying, but no matter whose predictions you trust, climate science provides no justification for Obama’s green agenda—or anyone else’s agenda. Even if it were somehow proved that high-end estimates for future global warming are accurate, that wouldn’t imply that Greens have the right practical solution for reducing carbon emissions—or that we even need to reduce those emissions. Policies for dealing with global warming vary according to political beliefs, economic assumptions, social priorities, and moral principles. Would regulating carbon dioxide stifle economic growth and give too much power to the state? Is it moral to impose sacrifices on poor people to keep temperatures a little cooler for their descendants, who will presumably be many times richer? Are there more important problems to address first? These aren’t questions with scientifically correct answers.

Liberals’ California dream of secession will end up a nightmare

Go ahead!  Do it!  Become the tin horn communist dictatorship you have all hoped and longed for!

Then we'll have to build a wall around CA AND Mexico to keep the fleeing masses out.
An independent California run by progressives may seem like a dream, but it would end up being a total nightmare. Places like East L.A. would look more like East Berlin.

First and foremost, the state would need to be divided into the 24 counties that voted for Donald Trump. Also, an additional five counties only supported Clinton with a plurality of a vote — they’d probably like to stay in the U.S. as well.

The independent nation of California also runs into the problem that it’s dependent on other states for water. Large portions of Southern California gets its water from the Colorado River; the biggest reservoirs are located in Arizona and Nevada.

Rain and bottled water are not enough to keep SoCal going. An independent California means importing water from a foreign country and tax on the source.

Given the state’s tendency to have massive wildfires and earthquakes, a natural disaster would also impose an even greater strain on the new country.

After the problem with natural resources, you’ll also face an economic difficulty. The middle class is shrinking, and the California Department of Finance reported on November 16th that there’s a tax shortfall of a billion dollars this year.

Liberals love to whine about income inequality, but California is a cesspool of problems. It’s not just expensive cities like San Francisco either where conditions have worsened.\

And wait until you see the flight of businesses from the Kingdom of CA!!

Thursday, November 17, 2016

California Shoppers Upset Over Statewide Grocery Bag Ban

I agree.  What a rip off.

Prop. 67 went into effect immediately after being approved by 52 percent of statewide voters on Nov. 8.

“Because they are just ripoff. I don’t want to pay for a plastic bag,” one man declared.

“Ten cents a little too much for me,” another man said.

Some stores are charging 10 cents for a paper bag, 15 cents for a reusable plastic bag.

Shoppers shared their two cents. “Bags should be free. I recycled them. Why should we have to pay for it?” a third man said.

A grocery store employee, who asked to stay anonymous, said shoppers were taking their anger out on her. “It involves lot of cussing. They’re not taking it very well,” she added.

I think I covered this in the past.  The grocery stores LOVE the plastic bag ban.  They make money charging you for these bags.

Illinois Pension Funding Ratio Sinks To 37.6% As Unfunded Liabilities Surge To $130 Billion

The slow bleeding of Illinois continues.

As a guide, here is a recap of the acronyms used by CGFA:
TRS = Teachers' Retirement System

SERS = The State Employees’ Retirement System

SURS = State Universities Retirement System

GARS = General Assembly Retirement System

JRS = Judges’ Retirement System

Thursday, November 10, 2016

The World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump

Hillary, who cried her eyes out when she lost the election, would not have been  able to shoulder the shear HELL that is coming.  Of all the candidates, only Trump understands the economic black hole we are headed for and what his ultimate mission will be.

From deflationland:
Because narrow policy does not matter. At the end of the Long Credit Cycle, policy is nothing. Soon enough we will be at the mercy of the forces of wild nature in the bond markets, the lifeblood of our abstracted civil society.

The deflationary spiral is a feature, not a bug. Our money came to us ex nihilo, and back there it shall go, as debt-defaults mount and Irving Fisher's nightmare is realized. The strategy to prop up asset values until growth and animal spirits return is a terrible failure. Now we have to face the consequences of the even greater malinvestment of capital than before, and the experience will be brutal.

The object, the great task, the World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump is to keep the United States whole, to maintain its order and integrity as we pass through the great crisis of Kondratieff winter on the credit cycle. Debts that cannot be paid -- won't be paid -- and that includes perks like Social Security, defined-benefit plans, pensions, your bank account. They are all dust, as we will learn soon enough. Guess what -- Donald already understands this, he knows we are dead broke.

Trump is in Abraham Lincoln's shoes now; his job is to preserve the Union, to reassert the Republic, and to enable us to survive as a nation. Debt-deflation will trigger a monetary collapse and final implosion of the fiat $USD, causing widespread disorder and the destruction of many of our institutions.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Clean Water Act: Report details how agencies expand authority

This is despicable.  What goes through the mind of people to think that tire ruts filled with water can in any sane line of thinking be considered a wetland?
The chairman of the Senate committee, James Inhofe, R-Okla., said the EPA and Corps have been "eroding traditional exemptions" contained in the Clean Water Act for normal farming activities. Several specific examples in the report occurred in California: A Northern California landowner, John Duarte, has been cited by the Corps for plowing his land. In that case, the agency described the tops of furrows as "uplands"; therefore, plowing is not exempt because it converts wetlands to uplands. (See related story below.)

Another California landowner received an investigation letter from the Corps, informing him that disking performed on the land might have resulted in an unauthorized discharge into waters of the U.S. The landowner had been disking the land for 15 years to benefit grazing conditions for cattle. According to the report, the landowner ultimately decided to sell his property and discontinue farming in response to the Corps action.

In a third California case, the Corps told a landowner last year that changing the use of a field from growing alfalfa to orchards would constitute a land-use change, allowing regulators to pursue an enforcement action if they thought plowing the field to plant trees involved a discharge to wetlands.

"The Corps regulator informed the landowner that despite an extensive farming history, orchards were never planted on the ranch so they are not the same kind of farming and might not be considered a normal farming activity," the report said.

The report also cited cases—including from California—where regulators have sought to classify tire ruts or puddles in gravel parking lots as wetlands.
The Federal Government has crossed the Rubicon into complete insanity.  This is Fascism.  Plain and simple. We are now Nazi Germany.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

This is How You’ll Bail out Municipal Pension Funds

Wolf does it again.  What.A.Mess
Property owners have already been whacked by a record property tax increase passed last October. It came on top of a reassessment of property values. So the property tax bills this year have jumped on average by 13%.

Phone users get to prop up the Laborers’ Retirement fund, expected to become insolvent “by 2029.” It covers about 5,000 current and retired laborers. So proceeds from the 911-surcharge increase from $2.50 a line to $3.90, imposed in 2014, or about $40 million a year, will be redirected to the fund. The city will also shuffle an extra $30 million a year from city funds covering the operation of O’Hare and Midway airports, water and sewer construction, and the like into the fund.
That last sentence about "shuffling" funds from airport operations. So the city infrastructure and airports will suffer so these pensioners can live the life of Riley.

You wait until we read of a jet that ran off the runway and killed several passengers due to poor runway maintenance due to underfunding.

We already have history in Chicago with EL-Trains derailing due to lack of maintenance and the woman with the cracked skull from falling pieces of Union Station.

Saturday, September 10, 2016

California nears adoption of energy-saving rules for computers

How preposterous.

California regulators moved a step closer on Friday to the first mandatory U.S. energy efficiency standards for computers and monitors, gadgets that account for 3 percent of home electric bills and 7 percent of commercial power costs in the state.

The latest draft standards issued by the California Energy Commission, marking the second revision of rules first proposed in March 2015, would save consumers an estimated $373 million annually when fully implemented, the agency said.

The projected energy savings under the plan are equivalent to the electricity used annually by all the homes in San Francisco, according to the commission.

The Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group working with the commission on the standards, said they would cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion in power generation by 700,000 tons a year.
Most homes now have ditched their desktop computer and have switched to a laptop or even just an iPad or tablet of some sort.  These devices use so little electricity, that to read these guys are trying to control power consumption just makes me want to either laugh....or puke.  So how much power does your laptop use?  Just check out
My Lenovo Thinkpad X61s with a low, but not ultra-low, voltage processor consumes 12W of power with the monitor at about half brightness doing web-based/office tasks (I measured it a few years ago, might double-check this later). This is on the low end of power consumption for a laptop.

Over an hour of usage it uses 12 Wh of electricity, which is 83 hours of use per kWh. With an average cost of electricity of 12c/kWh, this means that for $1 in electricity I can run my laptop for 651 hours.
As usual, the Private Sector is DECADES ahead of bureaucrats.   What a stupid, wasteful law.  Wht a waste of time.  I just can't figure out why it is taking the people of CA to tell these guys to eff off.

And then there is the point that computer, and especially, the internet are not net user of power.  They are net SAVERS of power:

Sunday, September 4, 2016

Workers Place Spire, Take Picture Atop Wilshire Grand as Tower Becomes Tallest on the West Coast

In actuality....this is a bad economic sign.

Construction workers at the Wilshire Grand Tower in downtown Los Angeles installed a spire atop of the building's rooftop on Saturday, thereby making it the tallest building west of the Mississippi River, and they snapped a picture to celebrate the historical moment.

The workers used a crane to lift the final piece of the steel spire and the building’s beacon onto the tower's rooftop, giving the building its final height of 1,100 feet.

The building is now the tallest building on the West Coast, project officials announced Saturday in a news release.
Without a doubt, it's quite a feat!

Left’s California Dream Built on Ignorance

Cultural Suicide.  That's all I can say.
The Democrat-owned legislature -- the ones that are not in jail or under indictment -- passed a bill that would gradually raise the minimum wage from $10 to $15 in 2022. The poll says 64 percent of Californians support that. That is while 66% of them believe that people will be laid off and 65 percent say that businesses will leave the state. What would have been interesting is if the people who took the poll would have asked poll participants: Would you support the increase if your son or daughter were laid off? Would you support it if your spouse’s business relocated to Utah, North Carolina or Texas? It is always easy to say that policies are good when they are affecting the other person or their family.

Saturday, September 3, 2016

California Passes Planned Parenthood-Backed Bill Criminalizing Health Care Sting Videos

The silent scream of murdered children will now only get louder.
The bill was strongly advocated by Planned Parenthood following a series of undercover videos released last summer by theCenter for Medical Progress, which claimed that the organization was unlawfully trafficking in fetal tissue.

"After the video smear campaign last summer, we experienced a ninefold increase in violence against our providers and our health centers," Beth Parker, chief legal counsel of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, told the LA Times.

"With the Internet and the tremendous wildfire nature in which news can be spread now through social media, we need to have a crime against distribution by those in particular who did the illegal recording," Parker said. "A slap on the hand of a $2,500 fine isn't sufficient."

State Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson (D-Santa Barbara) introduced the bill, commenting, "The nation is looking to California to take the lead on protecting access to care and to the doctors who provide that access. This measure will protect reproductive health doctors from violence and intimidation."
Sick and twisted.  Such evil.  Nine fold increase in "violence"?  I think these people have perfected the ability to LIE.

US judge: Gov’t can keep killing salmon-eating birds

These people just don't get it.  You can't control animal populations without horrible unintended consequences.  What the heck are they thinking?  I don't have to tell you how badly all of this will play out.
The effort to protect salmon in the Columbia River has also included the relocation of Caspian tern birds and the killing of sea lions.

Oregon, Washington and Idaho have had federal authorization since 2008 to catch and euthanize California sea lions seen preying on salmon. The sea lions hunt salmon as they go over the Bonneville Dam on the Columbia River between Washington and Oregon states.

Efforts to keep the sea lions away using pyrotechnics and sea gates did not work.

Authorities so far this year have trapped and put down 54 sea lions.

Sea lions are targeted for capture and killing if they are seen eating salmon at the dam between January and May.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Companies Bringing Manufacturing Jobs Back to US

And not a moment too soon!

From Jan, 2010 until July 2016 the Reshoring Initiative estimates that 265,000 jobs have come back to the United States from abroad.

The Reshoring Initiative’s 2015 Reshoring Report found that the reasons companies gave for coming back to the U.S. included:

◦Government incentives


◦Proximity to customers

◦Skilled workforce

At the same time, companies cited lower quality, supply interruption (this category had the largest increase from last year), high freight costs and delivery as leading problems offshore. Cumulatively, rising wages and total cost have been major drivers in reshoring decisions.

Regionally, the trend remained strongest in the Southeast and Texas, but in 2015 the West displaced the Midwest to hold second place for most jobs shifted from offshore.

The following slides represent some of the companies that have brought jobs back. The list was compiled by the Reshoring Initiative for 24/7 Wall St. and is based on companies announcements.
I'd like to know more about those government incentives.  I

Monday, August 22, 2016

Another Anniversary of FAILURE. NIXON takes the US Dollar off the gold standard

Yeah, that's right.  Blame the speculators.  Don't blame the government. Prosperity, eh?  Jobs, eh?  FAILURE!!  Instead of reining in spending, THIS was his fucking solution.

Nixon was one of the worst presidents we ever had.  He laid the groundwork for even bigger and more intrusive government into the lives of ordinary, law abiding citizens.

Watch....and weep.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

SWERVING INTO SANITY California Assembly Passes Bill To Curb “Policing For Profit” Via Asset Forfeiture;... News California Assembly Passes Bill To Curb “Policing For Profit” Via Asset Forfeiture; Close Federal Loophole

I just can't believe this.  CA is actually doing something RIGHT?  If ALL states would do this!

SB443 passed in the state Senate last summer by a resounding 38-1 vote. But the Assembly failed to pass the bill. It failed 44-24. Assemblyperson Chris Holden made a motion to reconsider that passed. SB443 was then placed in the inactive file and finally brought up for a vote in the full Assembly today.


California previously had some of the strongest state-level restrictions on the practice, but law enforcement around the state would often bypass the restrictions by partnering with a federal asset forfeiture program known as “equitable sharing.”

Under these arrangements, state officials hand over forfeiture prosecutions to the federal government and then receive up to 80 percent of the proceeds—even when state law bans or limits the profit incentive. Equitable sharing payments to states nearly doubled from 2000 to 2008, from a little more than $200 million to $400 million.

Hey TX! Look what CA did!!!

Sunday, August 7, 2016

African-American Church in North Carolina Endorses Donald Trump

If there is one group in the USA that understands the plight of blacks in America, it would have to be the Black churches.  What is astonishing is that many see at least a flicker of a flame of hope in Trump.

"This rally is to call to attention, raise awareness and rally support for Republican nominee, Mr. Donald Trump, featuring campaign representatives. This invitation is extended to both supporters and non-supporters, to engage in a real dialogue about issues that we want to see a part of the presidential narrative for 2016," explained a flyer for the event posted on Facebook.

"Supporting Hillary is like being with an abusive ex, one that you already know left you broken and wounded. At this point, give the new guy a chance. She has had a LONG political life, what she couldn't do in those years, can't be trusted to do within the next for (sic]. Even the Democratic Party that has manipulate our vote and smothered our voice, since the Civil Rights era," the description ended.

Friday, August 5, 2016

Maryland’s Coming Fracking Showdown

Can Maryland really turn down all that money?
As Maryland awaits a green light for fracking to begin, other states are reaping an economic bonanza. According to a 2011 Penn State study, just over the border to the north, that state’s Marcellus Shale producers generated an estimated $12.8 billion in economic activity in 2011. Over multiple years the extra income translates to almost $2.6 billion in additional state and local tax revenue. Ohio has added 6,000 jobs and over $400 million in new tax revenues.

Beyond the economic benefits, however, environmentalists should applaud the changes that the U.S. has been able to achieve as a result of fracking. Groups such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have all attributed the 27 year low in CO2 emissions to the transition in U.S. energy sourcing away from dirtier coal, made possible by fracking and the increased use of natural gas.

However starting in 2011, Gov. Martin O’Malley blocked fracking and ordered a three-year moratorium while a state advisory committee “studied” the issue. Since O’Malley’s study period “expired,” during the 2015 session, the legislature imposed a further delay that prevented the state from issuing fracking permits until October 1, 2017.

The FAQs: California Bill Threatens Freedom of Religious Colleges

Now that gay marriage is politicized it is the new morality.  And you evil Christians?  You are IMMORAL!

SB 1146 would amend current California laws on postsecondary education to make two main changes.

The first is limiting the religious exemption from the Equity in Higher Education Act to educational institutions that are controlled by a religious organization specifically to train ministers. Seminaries would still be allowed to retain the exemption, but most Christian colleges and universities in California would no longer qualify.

The second stipulation is that it would require postsecondary educational institutions that receive the exemption to post a notice of it in a “prominent place” on campus, on their websites, on all brochures, and so on.

An amendment removed the language that would have allowed students who were “denied equal rights or opportunities on the basis of gender identity, gender expression, or sexual orientation” to sue the schools for monetary damages.

Scientists find 'water windfall' beneath California's Central Valley

Well, this is good news for a parched CA!
California's drought-stricken Central Valley harbors three times more groundwater than previously estimated, Stanford scientists have found. Accessing this water in an economically feasible way and safeguarding it from possible contamination from oil and gas activities, however, will be challenging.

"It's not often that you find a 'water windfall,' but we just did," said study co-author Robert Jackson, the Michelle and Kevin Douglas Provostial Professor at Stanford. "There's far more fresh water and usable water than we expected."

The research, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences the week of June 27, highlights the need to better characterize and protect deep groundwater aquifers not only in California but in other parched regions as well.

"Our findings are relevant to a lot of other places where there are water shortages, including Texas, China and Australia," said study co-author Mary Kang, a postdoctoral associate at Stanford School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences.

Texas shale oil has fought Saudi Arabia to a standstill

Truly amazing article.

Opec's worst fears are coming true. Twenty months after Saudi Arabia took the fateful decision to flood world markets with oil, it has still failed to break the back of the US shale industry.

The Saudi-led Gulf states have certainly succeeded in killing off a string of global mega-projects in deep waters. Investment in upstream exploration from 2014 to 2020 will be $1.8 trillion less than previously assumed, according to consultants IHS. But this is a bitter victory at best.

North America's hydraulic frackers are cutting costs so fast that most can now produce at prices far below levels needed to fund the Saudi welfare state and its military machine, or to cover Opec budget deficits.
Stunning article worth the read.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Wood Mac: U.S. Shale To Be At Competitive Advantage In Coming Years

See?  Fracking is better for the environment.  No more Deep Water Horizon accidents.

U.S. shale, rather than deepwater, is now the lowest cost option for future oil production, Wood Mackenzie said in a report. This means that U.S. shale producers will likely be at a competitive advantage in coming years, which demonstrates the success of these companies in cutting production costs and achieving efficiency gains.


Average production costs have fallen by 30-40% for U.S. shale wells, but only 10-12% for large, new projects elsewhere, FT cited Simon Flowers with Wood Mackenzie as saying. They've largely done so by pursuing lower rates from oil services companies, and by achieving enhanced productivity by drilling in better locations to maximize the use of "sweet spots," the WSJ noted in a report.

For this reason, U.S. shale “oil will be the majority of what’s likely to be developed over the next few years, but at the same time, with decline rates and projected demand we still need all of the 13 million barrels a day,” Flowers added.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Next Prediction: If Trump is elected President, GOP Congressmen and Senators will switch to Democratic Party

Absurd Conclusion #1 Yup.  That is what will happen if we take the scenario to its absurd conclusion.  The hatred and animosity toward Trump will cause many members to switch.  The idea would be to create a unified voting block to stop anything and everything that Trump will want to pass.

Absurd Conclusion #2  The above is my prediction provided...provided Trump is even the nominee. The other absurd conclusion is that powerful forces are at work secretly behind the scenes to Dump Trump and install a more globalist candidate.  Who?  No idea.

If they do this, it will be the end of the GOP.

If Absurd Conclusion #1 occurs, it will be the end of the Democratic Party.

Parties: choose your poison.

Kimberly-Clark: Venezuela seizes and re-opens US-owned factory

This ALWAYS works out well (snark!)

The government of Venezuela has said it has seized a factory owned by the US firm Kimberly-Clark.

The firm had said it was halting operations in Venezuela as it was unable to obtain raw materials.

But the labour minister said on Monday that the factory closure was illegal and it had re-opened "in the hands of the workers".

Kimberly-Clark, which makes hygiene products including tissues and nappies, said it had acted appropriately.

Over the weekend it became the latest multinational to close or scale back operations in the country, citing strict currency controls, a lack of raw materials and soaring inflation.

General Mills, Procter & Gamble and other corporations have reduced operations in Venezuela as the country is gripped by economic crisis and widespread shortages of basic household goods.

Monday, July 4, 2016

US oil reserves surpass those of Saudi Arabia and Russia

Just amazing!  The Capitalists do it yet again.  History has been made!
The US holds more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia and Russia, the first time it has surpassed those held by the world’s biggest exporting nations, according to a new study.

Rystad Energy estimates recoverable oil in the US from existing fields, discoveries and yet undiscovered areas amounts to 264bn barrels. The figure surpasses Saudi Arabia’s 212bn and Russia’s 256bn in reserves.

The analysis of 60,000 fields worldwide, conducted over a three-year period by the Oslo-based group, shows total global oil reserves at 2.1tn barrels. This is 70 times the current production rate of about 30bn barrels of crude oil a year, Rystad Energy said on Monday.

Sunday, July 3, 2016

The Greater Depression, The Prescience of Elliott Wave and Economic Cycles

Update 2016-10-27  I've added additional external data that has nothing to do with economics but does lend credence to the idea that the sun is setting on American dominance.  It is in an addendum form at the end of the piece.

I've updated the post with Elliott Wave Trader's latest longterm SPX chart.  In some ways they line up.  But in other ways they don't. The new chart is first presented under the discussion of "Avi Gilburt".  Then the EWT and Real Estate Cycle projections are overlaid and are shown down in that section, with some discussion.

The date of the crash is more in agreement.  The date of the final high does not.

By the middle of 2012, it was clear to me that the drastic drop/crash I was expecting wasn’t going to happen.  The people to whom I had put my trust had gotten it all wrong.  I was stuck with ETFs shorting the market and watching them dwindle to almost nothing.

I had a short set up on the Japanese Yen going into 2012 that I decided to abandon.  The bears had me so concerned, I decided to sell my stake and get back into it later….but I never did.  This is what I walked away from:

I would have made a lot of money.

Searching for a Better Way

It was at that time I searched for those who had a better handle on the markets who could do a better job than the ones I had been following. That was when I stumbled upon Elliott Wave Theorydiscovered by R. N. Elliott:

The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale.
In Elliott's model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it.
The theory, in its simplest form generates a chart of the underlying equity as such:

Since the waves follow a Fibonacci sequence, each wave can be subdivided down into more waves, but each subset following the same pattern.  I just know the very basics of EWT and have relied on those who know better than I in charting the paths. So, I’ve told you all I know!

Does it work?

The answer is yes.  The real beauty of EWT is that all market psychology is built into the charts.  Because of this, you don’t have to follow the rest of the world events that we have always been lead to believe affect the market…but there are caveats.  I started following Dan Stinson at, subscribing to his service.  This was his oil chart in 2013:

And this is what happened:

But what is missing in Stinson’s analyses in each of his charts… is timing.  The concern for timing really becomes important, not in charts like this.  Because, if you can identify a trend, then you follow the trend until it exhausts itself.  It doesn’t matter how long or how short the trend is.  As we say: The Trend Is Your Friend.  The concern in timing is when you see one of his very long term charts that looks like this for the S&P500:

It’s when you see a chart like this that you start to really focus on the present:  What can I do now to preserve my wealth then? As most people don’t realize, it is now possible to make money when the stock market goes down just as easily as when the stock market goes up. You just have to, you know…figure out which way it is headed…and when.  What’re missing in the chart are the market gyrations between the final peak and the low. 
      Elliott Wave Caveats:
Finding someone who can put together a good Elliott Wave chart is not easy.  Dan Stinson’s fortes are long range charts, commodity and currency charts.  He is able to nail the probabilities in what the various twists and turns gold or the Euro will take.  His long term oil chart was astonishing, but his short term oil charts reflect the incredible difficulty there is in determining the waves with the highest probabilities.
      Avi Gilburt
Mr. Gilburt is the founder of a website for traders called Elliott Wave Trader. He has proven himself to be one of the top EWT analysts in the USA.  He presented this chart that I found astonishing:

His chart is confirmation that Stinson is possibly correct.  They both are showing the SPX to tank with the added information of a date.  But, how accurate is the date?  Is there an external set of analyses we can use to confirm or negate this date?  Also, I need to point out that the Grand Cycle (3)to (4) don’t show any of the stock market gyrations. I have no information as to what this would look like.   
      Economic and Real Estate Cycles.  The pieces fall into place.
Larry Edelson, of Weiss Research first clued me into the power of economic cycles.  I had always known of these in a general sense, but up until his presentation, I didn’t really think any of it was helpful.  Cycles are not very precise.  But, in our case they are precise enough to let us know whether or not the Elliott Wave gurus are on to something.  You can listen/watch one of the subsequent presentations that  I recorded here. The presentation is in an M4V format, so use a player that is compatible with this format.

However, I found his presentation a little on the sensational side and didn’t sign up for his newsletter.  I may be completely wrong, but I wasn’t convinced he was the person to entrust my money or future.

His prediction is that these cycles will bottom out in the mid-2020s.

Real Estate Cycle (almost…the same but different)

There is ample information on the Internet to which we can turn to confirm whether Edelson is correct. Phil Anderson of Cycle, Trends, Forecast says in one of his publications on his website (behind subscription wall):

Not only has the real estate cycle been historically consistent at about 18 years in duration, each cycle has unfolded in a highly regular and consistent manner. In 2005 I created a clock to give you a visual diagram how the repeat plays out based on my research of US real estate (land) beginning from 1800.
Anderson is from Australia.  As it turns out, analysts from all over the world study the US real estate cycles going back almost to the founding of this country.
In fact, the real estate cycles in the US are so regular he formulated a 24 hour clock to represent these.

Granted, I make an assumption. And that is the cyclical behaviour I’ve discovered will repeat. But once you discover the fundamental law of economics — 19th Century economist David Ricardo’s Theory of Rent — you’ll see that a repeat is all but inevitable. Why? Because the underlying structure of the economy never changes, despite the endless fiddling and additions in regulations and laws.
You can see this most clearly in the history of the United States.
This is one of his clocks where he actually put dates against them, but I have a hard time following it:

From the same publication the author had this to say.  Bear in mind, this was written in 2015:           

So what’s next?
Just check the clock.
A modest peak in economic activity going into 2017–18. Higher stock prices, which we expect to peak in 2019. Then the mid-cycle slowdown into 2021.
So, we now have confirmation that 2019 (or thereabouts) is the peak of the stock market.

In another Phil Anderson publication to come out just a bit later in April 2016, we are given more information on timing:

Along the way, tightening monetary policy, problems in emerging markets, and the midcycle slowdown may lead to corrections. We’d expect a low to be made at some point in 2016. Later on, around 2019, we’d expect a mid-cycle economic recession to result in a stock market correction too.
Finally, in 2025/26, the stock market will hit its final peak for this cycle ahead of the peak in the economy.
So, we see some correlation between Gilburt’s 2025 and Phil Anderson’s 2025/26.  Phil Anderson is calling for one more final peak in the markets in 2025/26 with the subsequent crash –which will be fast.

What we have is a timing issue regarding Avi’s final high and the Real Estate Cycle.  Avi shows the market first peaking in mid-2017/18.  We could regard this as the beginning of Anderson’s mid-cycle recession.  This is followed by the final peak in 2019/20.  So there is a two to six year difference as to when the peak in the stock market is reached.  The chart is just for talking purposes and please….don’t take it to the bank! Other than timing, I’m assuming all other things are equal.

This is one of the problems with both EWT and Real Estate Cycles.  They aren’t precise to the gnat’s eye.  Which do we believe?  We don’t believe either of them.  We watch and prepare as we get closer to the dates.  All of this will unfold over time. The real answer is probably something in between.

Kondratieff  and Gann Commodity Price Cycles
Nikolai Kondratieff was a Russian economist during the early 1900s that researched and developed the idea of economic cycles.  Unfortunately, his ideas were despised by Stalin.  Kondratieff was later imprisoned and then executed by firing squad due to his anti-Communist ideas.

Kondratieff cycles last anywhere from 40 – 60 years.  Modern versions also point to the advent of new technologies and innovation that are timed to propel the Kondratieff cycle back up to a new peak.  Examples are:

The technological cycles can be labeled as follows:
The Industrial Revolution—1771
The Age of Steam and Railways—1829
The Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering—1875
The Age of Oil, Electricity, the Automobile and Mass Production—1908
The Age of Information and Telecommunications—1971
Any influence of technology during the cycle that began in the Industrial Revolution pertains mainly to England. The U.S. was a commodity producer and was more influenced by agricultural commodity prices. There was a commodity price cycle based on increasing consumption causing tight supplies and rising prices. That allowed new land to the west to be purchased and after four or five years to be cleared and be in production, driving down prices and causing a depression, as in 1819 and 1839.[14] By the 1850s the U. S. was becoming industrialized.[15]

From a published paper put out by Ascendant Strategy, there have been four distinctive waves that have been identified:

We entered the Fifth Wave in 2001.

Subset of Kondratieff:  Commodity Price Cycles:
Gann discovered a 30-year rhythm in commodity prices, which he used to look forward from major price highs and lows to identify future ones. (He also talked about 60 and 90-year cycles, but to keep things simple we will consider these as combinations of 30 year ones, i.e. a 60-year cycle is double a 30 year cycle).
The conclusion from these two cycles [Kondratieff and Gann commodity price cycle-GF] is that we should expect the long-term trend in prices to be up into the middle of the 2020s based on our projection of the current Kondratieff Wave upswing. However, in that time frame we should expect a low price in or around 2023, being 30 years from the low of 1993.

Others, besides Ascendant Strategies have spent a lifetime studying the Kondratieff Waves and have formed investment companies around what they have done extending K-Wave theories for modern use.  Another investment advising company, The Longwave Group, is notable.  Below is a chart they put together to show where we have been and where we are headed.  We are headed into what Kondratieff himself has termed “The Winter” showing it finally bottoming out sometime in 2020.

More specifically, he shows “2020?” indicating that the exact date is unknown but having the highest probability in the 2020s.

Ian Gordon has several Youtube videos where he discusses the K-Waves and his pictograms. You can watch all five of his videos, but the guy is a little dry in his presentation:

So…where does all of this leave us?
We look for signs.    Now that we know generally where and when all of this is headed we can look for the signs that it will and HAS happened
There are three signs in this order:
       1)      Faltering housing market prices- possible subprime mortgages default like in 2008

As the graph shows, the first sign of trouble is the housing market.  Sales start to peak as prices reach unsustainable levels.  
      2)      Market turns over from a high of ~3200SPX

Will the SPX really hit 3200?  Well, we’ll just have to see.  The waves chosen are based on those with the greatest probabilities. Others who implement EWT haven’t mentioned that at all.  If you look at Stinson’s long term S&P Chart he does seem to indicate a high of about 2200.  But the whole top of his chart is a bit vague and appears unreliable.

I was able to find one analyst who is, in a sense, calling for it:  There is this article on Barrons’s “The Stock Market Will Make New Highs This Year” with qualification:
In August 2015, you suggested the S&P 500 would hit 3200. It is now just above 2000, and peaked at 2100.
This isn’t going to be a pop-up bull market. We provide some sort of historical perspective with that forecast. We said that if the market continued to gain 11 basis points [hundredths of a percentage point] per day, as it had to that point, and if it were to equal 1990’s rally in length, it would trade up to 3200. It wasn’t meant to be a forecast but something along the lines of guidance, and that investors should at least be open to that possibility. We tried hard to distinguish between the possibility and a forecast, but everyone fixated on that number.
The point we were making was, don’t take it off the table—don’t presume it will happen, but don’t give up. Don’t let all the bad news take you out. We aren’t saying the market will go to 3200 but that it could go there, so leave the door open—and so far, it hasn’t cost you. Nobody was expecting anything good at the time, but we were willing to say the possibility exists.
So, the next question to ask, if we don’t see 3200SPX, how do we get from here (today) to there (2024)?  The mind reels at the possibilities.  The other most likely scenario is that posited by Dr. McHugh, using his Primary Degree Trend Indicator (behind subscription wall), sees the US stock markets topping this year and then heading lower over the coming years:

Wherever the market peaks, the clock will start ticking.


       3)      Rapid rise of unemployment. 

Once the bear market is a sure thing, the people start to be pushed out the doors.  Unfortunately, I couldn’t glean much information from this chart.  I don’t have enough resolution toward the left end.
The Bad News.  The Good News.
First, The Bad News: The Greater Depression
This is the part I hate to really conjecture upon.  I don’t want to sound like it’s the end of the world as we know it…but that is exactly what will occur.  The most likely things that will happen are:
-          Massive unemployment
-          Collapse of housing prices – massive homelessness.
-          Collapse of commodity prices
Probably the most somber professional article I’ve read was written in 2012 by Dr. Folvary entitled “The Coming Depression of 2026”.  He lays the blame of a coming drop in markets on inflated land prices:
Nobody paid attention during the 1990s when those familiar with the real estate cycle predicted the Depression of 2008 (including myself, in 1997). Almost all economists, financial analysts, journalists, pundits, bloggers, and armchair cynics will also scoff at this prediction of a severe recession and depression in 2026. They will say there is no way to accurately predict such an event so far in advance. But the cycle exists precisely because people don’t believe it.
There has been one fundamental cause of the boom and bust cycle: massive subsidies to land values. Since these subsidies are a governmental intervention into the market, the cause of the cycle is not “business,” hence the term “business cycle” is misleading. It is a cycle of economic distortions caused by government policies.
The monetary subsidy to real estate consists of cheap credit. In the US, the Federal Reserve manipulates interest rates by expanding the money supply. An injection of money increases the money reserves of the banks, which then lower their interest rates to loan out the extra money. Cheap credit fueled the real estate bubble that peaked in 2006, and super-low interest rates today are sowing the seeds of the next bubble. Similar money creation occurs by other central banks.
Some have conjectured that what is occurring longterm is the culmination of a massive wealth transfer from West (North America and Europe) to East (China and Asia in general). Granted, China is now mired in their own problems (mainly demographics, massive amounts of debt and continued central control) and in my opinion its participation may not be as great as many expect, but many economists posit that when all of this is over, the Asian countries will be poised for phenomenal growth.
There are many things we know of now that will affect the long term future of America.  We could mention the massive US government debt of $20 trillion.  We could mention the trillions of dollars of sketchy municipal bonds and those held by pensions and the billions in stocks that will spiral to zero not to mention the huge amounts of corporate debt from unending stock buy backs.  So, we could see many pensions end up completely broke.  The affect of defaults will be worldwide.  Some are already talking about a future Jubilee period – a period of complete debt forgiveness, a practice from Biblical times.
As Donald Rumsfeld is famous for saying about trying to account for causes:
Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones. 
And this is the real problem we’re face with in trying to understand what lies ahead. And these are the problems (unknown unknowns) that Elliott Wave Theory and Cycle Theories avoid. How?  They are already baked into their charts and accounted for.
Next, The Good News.
Part and parcel with the Kondratieff Cycle is the idea of technological innovation and invention.  Generally, once the wave has exhausted itself, a new technological achievement will propel the economy upward.  That’s the good news.
The cautionary news is that government meddling and controls, especially at the levels we see them now, can easily delay the implementation of any new innovation, prolonging the agony. As you saw above in the table, K-Waves turned upward and followed the 50-60 year cycles in Capitalist countries.  Without true Capitalism or an economy with extreme government controls on Capitalism, an improving economy will be delayed or never occur.
Putting that aside, many have pointed to the Internet as the catalyst for empowering the individual to innovate and improve his life.  And usually, that is where they stop when trying to determine what the future holds (Read Dr. Pippa Malgrem’s book “Signals: The Breakdown of the Social Contract and the Rise of Geopolitics”) .  But why stop there?
Doug Casey of Casey Research recently had this to say about the coming next Industrial Revolution:
 Some of these things, like energy and space exploration, are just extensions of current technologies. Others, especially nanotech, are game changers.
Energy—With the exception of nuclear, all power comes from the sun. In the past, solar, wind, and similar power sources existed mainly in the dreams of economically illiterate hippies. But now, combined with rapidly advancing battery technology, they finally make sense. Better yet, oncoming generations of modular nuclear reactors will be tiny, extremely safe, simple, and cheap. Maybe fusion power will finally become practical—although that would just be a bonus.
Oil and gas?  They’re important as feedstocks, but mainly because they provide very dense energy.  They are, however, essentially compounds of hydrogen and carbon, two of the most common and simplest elements.  With adequate (and sufficiently cheap—this is the key) power, they can be created in unlimited quantity; the chemistry is quite basic and well understood. Among other things, algae can be programmed to manufacture them in quantity.
Space—One of the good things about most governments being bankrupt is that they’re being forced to cede the conquest of space to entrepreneurs, who will colonize the moon, the asteroids, and the planets. I love Elon Musk’s quip: “I hope to die on Mars. Just not on impact.” Of course, if he’s lucky, he may live to be several hundred years old because of other developments.
You need “stuff” to make what you need. A lack of raw materials has always been a major reason for conflict. But digging things out of the Earth, using big yellow trucks, will no longer be humanity’s only option. The asteroids are full of dense elements. They’ll soon become available in massive quantity, cheaply.
Life extension—It’s clear we’re on the edge of solving the problem of aging; it should be addressed as a degenerative disease. All other diseases are simply footnotes to aging. If you live long enough, you can be, do, and have everything that you can imagine. It’s likely to be possible soon.
Biological engineering—The creation of not just new body parts, but new bodies, made to order, is in the works. And new species. And much more. Who really knows what can be done with DNA? But the answer is probably: Almost anything, in lots of ways.
Distributed manufacturing—A.E. van Vogt’s The Weapon Shops of Isher predicted machines that would create advanced weapons for you, in the privacy of your own home. Now that’s possible with 3-D printing. Soon, if you can design something, or get the design, you can create it. At home.
Robotics—Not just smart machines in factories. In fact, factories themselves may be on their way out. Humanoid beings—products of bioengineering and AI—could replace them. They’ll perhaps be almost indistinguishable from normal people.
This alone, the creation of intelligent machines, will overturn the nature of society, family, warfare, work—everything.
Artificial intelligence—I believe that a difference that makes no difference is no difference. That’s the concept behind the Turing test. At some point, very soon, machines will be smarter than their creators and will in turn create other machines smarter than they are. And continue doing so at a geometric rate.
Nanotech—I did a chapter on this in Crisis Investing for the ’90s. At the time, not one person in 100 had a clue what it was. In its ultimate form, nanotech—the use of molecular-sized assemblers and supercomputers—will change the character of reality itself. Totally and unrecognizably. It amounts to pixie dust, making it possible to manipulate the 92 naturally occurring elements into useful compounds cheaply and easily. It’s becoming possible to fabricate totally new materials, like carbon nanotubes, vastly more capable than any “natural” material.
Computer science—Electromechanical switches, then vacuum tubes, then transistors, now silicon chips, and soon quantum computing are taking place on a molecular level. All the knowledge in the world, contained in a cube. Or perhaps in the head of a biologically enhanced robot. Or perhaps in an interface to your own brain.
Virtual reality—You’ll be able to immerse yourself in a world of your own creation, activating all of your senses, in a veritable Star Trek holodeck that will be almost indistinguishable from real reality. Perhaps you will prefer to live in unreality. All in the privacy of your own home.
On the subject of fusion, great strides are being made.  Lockheed Martin is on schedule to deliver prototypes to the military.  Here is a youtube video that discusses their program:


So, there you have it.  The short term, the near term, the long term.  The path is laid out in front of you.  It’s up to you to make the right decisions to ensure a long and prosperous life.  Technical analysis and cycle studies have told us the general path from riches to rags to riches and to understand that the path forward is multigenerational.
It’s important that we be aware of what is in store for us at each point.  Not just to ensure our survival.  And not just to ensure our children’s survival.  But to ensure the survival of our children’s children.  So, it’s important that this information be handed down to your kids with instructions that this information be given to their kids.
Because, one of the tenants of Kondratieff was that the waves are so long that those that experienced the prior wave are long dead and the next generation goes into the next wave blissfully ignorant as to what is in store for them.
The Kondratieff Winter cannot be avoided.  It can only be postponed.  But from what I can tell, postponement only leads to deeper and deeper pain due to mountains heaped on mountains of debt that finally collapse.
But we can hope that one day; the Final Innovation will be invented to eradicate Want and Need in the world, thus finally ending the relentless cycles forever.

UPDATE: I had completely forgotten that Ted Aguhob had also done an analysis on the DOW, SPX and NDX and calculated a  peak in the threes as such; 33,000, 3,300, 7,500. 
     He originally did his analysis back in 2013/2014.  Everyone thought he was crazy. But...maybe not so much anymore.
      Here is one of his youtube videos where he talks about it:

Addendum 2016-10-27

Sir John Glubb was a soldier, scholar and author (see this Wikipedia write-up on him:  He studied a number of empires and wrote an essay called The Fate of Empires and The Search For Survival (  He shows this table that lists how long each empire lasted:

He breaks down the stage of an empire as:

The Age of Pioneers (outburst)
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence.

He goes into a decent amount of detail about each one. When you read his breakdown of the Age of Decadence, try to figure out where we are in that.

He states the average age for an empire is 250 years.

If you take the founding of the USA as 1776, 250 years brings you to 2026. If you recall my write up on cycles, this puts the end of the American empire (but not necessarily the end of the country called USA) near the beginning bottom of the "Winter Season" of the Kontratieff Wave.