I've been following the news and quite a few Youtube videos that talk about the solvency of Social Security. The title of the article is a bit misleading. What the article calls "bankrupt" is referring to is the amount held in the Trust Fund. And for sure that amount is predicted to run out in the mid-2030s. And from that point on, whatever is collected from payrolls will be collected and immediately disburse to retirees. The amout will be some fraction of what you would normally collect. So, if you're in your 80s, there's a more than even chance you'll croak before you are confonted with having to decide what life changes you'd have to make.
When the US first launched the Department of Government Efficiency—DOGE—I thought this should be a critical piece of the reform.
Yes, of course, slash fraud, waste, and abuse. But even more urgently, reset the entire culture of how the US government does business with its citizens.
I recently found a glimmer of hope that this may be happening.
Late last week, Social Security marked its 90th birthday since being signed it into law in 1935 at the height of the Great Depression.
Ever since, generations of Americans have accumulated stories of painfully navigating this massive institution— too often about waiting rooms, endless forms, and mind-numbing incompetence.
But something unusual has happened in the last few months. Frank Bisignano, the new commissioner, took over. He comes from a CEO position in the private sector, and seems to be running Social Security like a business.
He’s pushed a digital-first strategy, incorporated AI tools, and focused on simple things that most people in the private sector would take for granted.
Processing backlogs are coming down. Efficiency is up.
Barely a year ago, you had to spend nearly 30 minutes on hold when you called Social Security. Today, the agency says the wait is under five minutes—while serving nearly twice as many people.
You can also now schedule appointments before going into an office— imagine that. And the average wait time at a Social Security office has also been slashed down to just six minutes.
The Social Security website has been overhauled as well, so taxpayers are able to obtain much more information and handle their service needs online. Crazy that it took until 2025 to make this happen.
Oh, and it turns out that the Social Security website— until very recently— used to be offline nearly 30 hours per WEEK for scheduled downtime. They’ve now eliminated this and MySocialSecurity is now available 24/7.
Good news all around! But then, the article gets dark. Very dark.
Unfortunately, there’s one thing the Commissioner can’t control: Social Security’s looming insolvency.
Social Security’s finances are up to Congress, and that picture is bleak.
Social Security is almost out of money. Everyone in Washington knows it. At best, there’s less than eight years until Social Security’s major trust fund runs out of money. And it will probably take place sooner than that.
Just like fixing bad government service, fixing Social Security’s solvency is not complicated. At this point there are only a few levers to pull: either raise taxes, or roll back retirement age.
The trustees and Social Security’s own actuaries have spelled out these solutions for years, practically begging Congress to act.
They’ve also been clear— the sooner that Congress works to solve the problem, the less painful the solution will be.
If they raise payroll taxes now, the tax hike will be minor. If they wait until 2032, the increase will be brutal.
Similarly, if they pass a law today to phase in an increase to the retirement age, the change will be minor. If they wait a decade, the increase will be much more dramatic.
Yet Congress is—predictably—the least capable group on the planet when it comes to handling obvious problems.
Sure, most likely they won’t let Social Security fail. But the longer they wait, the more likely the eventual fix will simply be a multi-trillion-dollar bailout funded by “printing” money.
For sure, if SSI is your only source of income, its a good time to start talking to your kids about getting things ready for you to move in with them. It appears trying to convince your comgressman or Senators to do something about this is like Dust In The Wind.
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