Updated chart of Texas Coronavirus Daily Deaths and Daily Hospitalizations AS OF 2020/12/20

 

Click on the chart to get get a better view of the details

Significant update to chart located here: https://californiaswansong.blogspot.com/2021/01/update-on-texas-coronavirus-statistics.html

I have not updated the chart itself yet.  I will, probably in the next week or so.  

Update 2020/12/27

What we need now is a daily number expressing the daily median average for time spent in the hospital.

Update 2020/12/25

Comments on chart: I switched early on to using hospitalizations instead of cases.  The reasons for having a test done vary, and needs for testing are variable and change over time.  Also, the godawful accuracy of the tests leave much to be desired.

However, the numbers for hospitalizations remain fixed once recorded.  Unlike the daily deaths, the hospital stays, once recorded never change.  Also, the use of hospitalizations tells us a story that is worth considering.

The complete tally of daily deaths, since posting these as coronavirus deaths is an administrative procedure, can take two to three weeks to completely update for a particular day.  In fact, the tally can take up to a couple of months - but the updates that far back are in the single digits.

So, what I do is look at the change from day-to-day.  Once the change is less than 10, then I consider the deaths for that day to be updated, for charting purposes. 

So, let's see what the chart is telling us:

- The rise in hospitalizations has dramatically slowed.  This means one of two things - or both.  1) the idea of herd immunity is taking hold.  2) We are better at treating this disease thus reducing the need for hospitalizations. The slow growth also gives doctors and nurses more time to assess the correct treatment - a feed back loop. 

- The daily deaths has leveled.  Again, this tells us one of two things: 1) The disease is less likely to kill people due to herd immunity.  2) We are better able to treat patients that leads to their recovery.

- The rise in daily deaths is pulling away from the rise in hospitalizations. This is very significant. As you can see from the initial exposure, daily deaths rose at the same rate as the hospitalizations. I've waited a couple of weeks before mentioning this.  But the numbers are there and cannot be disputed. The most important thing this is telling us is what may come next:  daily deaths dropping.

- Possible DROP in daily deaths - I don't think this is a sure thing, but this is what I am optimistically expecting. I think at the most one more month of data will tell us where this is heading.

- What the data is asking is: Do we really need a vaccine? I think this is a question worth asking. As the virus loses its virulence and as we have developed ways to treat this disease, it looks to me, there may not be a need for vaccination.  Mass use of the vaccine now will possibly coincide with an already forgone conclusion of the demise of this disease.  We would have a false impression that the vaccine was the cure, when in actuality it was not. 

Living the Life of Riley....or not

 When we lived in Germany the first time in 2005-2006, we had Canadians living below us.  The husband was being paid in US Dollars and apparently, his salary and perks were very nice.  I, on the other hand, was getting paid in British Pounds.  The money would be deposited in my American Chase Bank account and would be converted to US dollars.

Below is a chart of the dollar against the British Pound. You’ll notice the Pound strengthened against the dollar the whole time we were there. 

So, everytime I got paid, I essentially got a raise!  The amount of dollars deposited into my American bank account got bigger and bigger each month!  It was sweet!  It was good news! If  you look at the clip of the GBPUSD chart, the rectangular area was the time I was in Germany with a couple of months at the beginning I was in the UK.

British Pound vs US Dollar

But…the bad news was our downstairs Canadian neighbor who was being paid in US Dollars saw his pay check shrink and shrink….and shrink against the Euro .  They had originally rented the ENTIRE downstairs.  But it became unaffordable, so they got rid of one side and lived in only one apartment, like we were.  Granted, it was certainly big enough for us, so I’m certain it was more than big enough for them.

The Canadian approached his German employer several times imploring them to allow his salary to be paid in euros, but they wouldn’t do it.  Even though it was becoming cheaper and cheaper for them to keep him!  How stupid!  Eventually, with funds becoming exhausted, he quit and got a job back in Canada.

Tale of the shrinking salary

Now fast forward to 2014 when I went to Seoul to work on a project as a contractor.  But this time  I was being paid in Euros. And....this time I wasn’t getting a raise.  I was getting a pay cut!! This is what the Euro was doing against the dollar then:

FXE Euro Fund

So, I found myself in the same boat as my Canadian friend. What was I to do?  There were three answers: 1) quit, 2) renegotiate a new higher salary…3) or get really smart.  So, I decided the last route first to see what I could do.

I figured I could “hedge” my salary.  I put money in a leveraged inverse Euro fund. So, even as my salary decreased each month, the money I put in the inverse leveraged fund…WENT UP!

The name of the fund is EUO.  I put some money into the fund through my brokerage account in August of 2014 (it may have been July).  And this is what the fund did:

Euro Proshares UltraShort Fund

It went up almost 22% in those months.  It’s a leveraged fund so that for every 1% the Euro when down in value, the EUO fund went UP 2%!!  Sweet!!!

What made the difference?

It was really, really easy. The one thing I had that was critical were good Elliott Wave Charts to guide me to what the future was going to hold.  Without that, I was shooting in the dark.

I have found Elliott Wave Theory to make the difference between crawling around in the dark and seeing a light at the end of the tunnel (or…did I just die?  Should I follow the light?)

The real moral of the story:

This taught me an important lesson.  I no longer had fear.  I could work anywhere in the world, get paid in any currency and not fear losing money. Now, when I work overseas, I can work hard and afterward, hit the pub, grab a beer....and enjoy the rich culture of where ever I am!!