My comments regarding these numbers so far are:
1. I haven't gone back to look at it, but at some point in December or early January, the TDSHS updated the hospitalizations. The assumption early on was the hospitalization numbers were fixed and would not be updated. Well, that was not entirely correct. It looks like the numbers are fixed now.....for now. I can't determine what they will do in the future.
2. The daily fatalities are taking longer for them to completely update for any day. What looked like to me that daily deaths had flattened was not correct. They are slowly climbing. My calculations show the rate of deaths is at only one fourth the rate of the 2020 May/June time frame. Very....very slow. What I do now is add a week taking the date of incompleted data back a bit further to basically remove it from the analysis. I hated to do this because it delays any conclusion we can draw of what is ahead. I think no conclusion is better than the wrong conclusion.
3. My rough calculations for the rate of growth in daily hospitalizations show that it would take about four months for them to completely max out hospital bed utilization. That max-out date would bring us to the May/June timeframe. Just at the point we would probably start seeing a drop in hospitalizations and even daily fatalities.
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