Sunday, January 24, 2021

TEXAS CORONAVIRUS UPDATE AS OF 2021/1/23

 

UPDATE: Please check an update to this chart for February 26, 2021

https://californiaswansong.blogspot.com/2021/02/texas-coronavirus-update-as-of-february.html

The daily hospitalizations have settled down, from what I can tell. I didn't check every day, but spot checked a couple of dates. I don't know what the reason was for the change.  Probably Texas DHS were re-defining a few things.  I could ask them.  I have their email address and they do respond to my questions, which is very nice.

Like I mentioned before in a prior update to a post, the daily deaths have been slowly rising.  Nothing like it was in the beginning.  The conclusions regarding this have not changed.  A treatment protocol by now has been established - no more shots in the dark.  Also, there is herd immunity.  I add herd immunity because the virus had established itself as highly contagious. Refer to the chart to see the rapid rise in deaths and hospitalizations in late May onward.  But now, the rise in deaths (slope) is far far slower. We can imply from this that the virus has lost some of its potency.

If you look to the far right of the chart, I show a smooth gradiated shaded area.  I still use the cutoff point for reliable data of a change in deaths of less than 10 on the latest day, but I add an additional week to capture outliers. I gradiated it because it was unclear if the added weak should be counted or not.  I didn't want to blot it out entirely. But for sure, they are MORE up to date than the last few weeks/days.

The last few days show the daily hospitalizations topping out (see dashed oval in chart).  We need to see a few more weeks of data to determine if we have an actual trend. 

Daily deaths are represented as a 7 day moving average for greater clarity.








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