Updated chart of Texas Coronavirus Daily Deaths and Daily Hospitalizations AS OF 2020/12/20

 

Click on the chart to get get a better view of the details

Significant update to chart located here: https://californiaswansong.blogspot.com/2021/01/update-on-texas-coronavirus-statistics.html

I have not updated the chart itself yet.  I will, probably in the next week or so.  

Update 2020/12/27

What we need now is a daily number expressing the daily median average for time spent in the hospital.

Update 2020/12/25

Comments on chart: I switched early on to using hospitalizations instead of cases.  The reasons for having a test done vary, and needs for testing are variable and change over time.  Also, the godawful accuracy of the tests leave much to be desired.

However, the numbers for hospitalizations remain fixed once recorded.  Unlike the daily deaths, the hospital stays, once recorded never change.  Also, the use of hospitalizations tells us a story that is worth considering.

The complete tally of daily deaths, since posting these as coronavirus deaths is an administrative procedure, can take two to three weeks to completely update for a particular day.  In fact, the tally can take up to a couple of months - but the updates that far back are in the single digits.

So, what I do is look at the change from day-to-day.  Once the change is less than 10, then I consider the deaths for that day to be updated, for charting purposes. 

So, let's see what the chart is telling us:

- The rise in hospitalizations has dramatically slowed.  This means one of two things - or both.  1) the idea of herd immunity is taking hold.  2) We are better at treating this disease thus reducing the need for hospitalizations. The slow growth also gives doctors and nurses more time to assess the correct treatment - a feed back loop. 

- The daily deaths has leveled.  Again, this tells us one of two things: 1) The disease is less likely to kill people due to herd immunity.  2) We are better able to treat patients that leads to their recovery.

- The rise in daily deaths is pulling away from the rise in hospitalizations. This is very significant. As you can see from the initial exposure, daily deaths rose at the same rate as the hospitalizations. I've waited a couple of weeks before mentioning this.  But the numbers are there and cannot be disputed. The most important thing this is telling us is what may come next:  daily deaths dropping.

- Possible DROP in daily deaths - I don't think this is a sure thing, but this is what I am optimistically expecting. I think at the most one more month of data will tell us where this is heading.

- What the data is asking is: Do we really need a vaccine? I think this is a question worth asking. As the virus loses its virulence and as we have developed ways to treat this disease, it looks to me, there may not be a need for vaccination.  Mass use of the vaccine now will possibly coincide with an already forgone conclusion of the demise of this disease.  We would have a false impression that the vaccine was the cure, when in actuality it was not.